Analysis of the DRC electrification scenario for the reduction of wood energy in the energy balance using the MAED model

Abstract

Energy planning is considered to be a first-rate scientific tool. It enables numerical analyses to be made of the energy future of countries or regions of the world. These analyses form the scientific basis for energy policies and implementation strategies. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), like many developing countries, is facing a growing demand for energy in a complex context that includes the predominant use of wood fuels, economic growth, structural changes, liberalization of the electricity sector, demographic dynamics and environmental and socio-economic challenges. This article analyzes the potential of electrification to reduce the use of wood energy in the energy balance of the DRC to 2050, using the Modeling Analysis Energy Demand (MAED). The study explores an energy trajectory integrating household electrification and the transition to renewable energy sources, notably hydroelectricity, in order to meet growing energy demand and reduce environmental impacts. The methodology of this study is divided into three stages: selection of the modeling tool, establishment of the reference year, and demand projection. The results show that 100% electrification in urban areas and 40% in rural areas reduce dependence on wood energy by 40%, the main source of energy consumption in the DRC. Implementing this scenario could also avoid up to 1,640 Mt CO2 of cumulative emissions by 2050, while meeting the international climate commitments. Focusing on electrification in the DRC as an alternative to wood energy could help decarbonize the energy balance and reduce pressure on forests.